Ukraine's grain farming in the midst of the conflict with Russia

Ukraine's agricultural exports in 2022 totaled
0.0 billion, making up 41% of the country's total exports.

Ukraine is the world's top global producer of Sunflower, #2 global producer of Sunflower Oil and Sunflower Meal, and the #7 producer of Wheat.

But in the midst of the conflict with Russia, how is Ukraine's grain farming being impacted? Let's take a look.

Most of Ukraine's grain is grown in the Oblasts. Here is a breakdown of where different grains are grown in Ukraine, as a percentage of the country's total grain production: Wheat: TK% Barley: TK% Millet: TK% Rye: TK% Oats: TK%

Where does Ukraine's grain end up? In a normal trade year, the bulk of Ukraine's exports go to African and Southeast Asian countries. About TK% of Ukraine's total exports go to Pakistan, followed by Sudan (TK%) and Egypt (TK%).

But what is happening to Ukraine's grain farming now, in the midst of the conflict? Russian missile strikes have recently been reported in Ukraine, and some are landing in areas where grain is grown.

Unfortunately, the current situation makes it difficult to know the exact impact on Ukraine's grain production, but our forecast and scenario tool can help us explore different possibilities.

Let's look at three different scenarios: a small impact on grain production, a medium impact, and a large impact. In the small impact scenario, exports will remain virtually unchanged from their pre-conflict levels.

However, if we switch to the large impact scenario, exports drop by a whopping TK%, with the majority of the losses being felt by TK, TK, and the TK.

The conflict with Russia is having a real and devastating effect on Ukraine's grain production, and it's important to understand the downstream impacts. Our tool allows users to explore the potential impacts of different scenarios on grain production, opening up more possibilities for analysis